Rates Suck, But Stop Scrolling. It’s Going to be OK.
There’s a reason I am a mortgage broker and not a therapist. It’s not that I don’t want to make people feel better or am some cold and bitter crone who delights in the suffering of my clients. On the contrary, I really do want to fix everything for everyone and the last few weeks have been brutal.
It makes perfect sense to be anxious as a homebuyer right now: rates moved quickly and more than anyone anticipated, and in response the social media feed of anyone who has had even a passing interest in real estate is full of YouTubers announcing the end of times. Oh, and the comments section chock full of boomers who are here to remind us that they got a 14% rate on their first house.
I don’t have an easy way to say the right thing to help you feel better about being in the market right now, but I have graphs. And I hope the graphs help you feel confident making decisions when the noise varies between “we are essentially experiencing the fall of Rome” to “why NOW is the best time to buy a home, and disregard every other month for the last 5 years that I’ve been saying that.”
I won’t BS you. Promise.
Fact #1This isn’t a new situation, and no one died last time.
Since 1993, when rates began a longer term downward trend, we have had rates over 7% on 23 occasions. The median length of time was 3 weeks. Only in 3 instances did it last over 18 months, all during the 90s. That means in all the years that started with a 2, we have not had rates over 7% for more than 18 months.
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I am not sure how much you remember of the 90s, but the structure of our economy looked quite different then. Debt has been trending to be overall less expensive with technology improvements, so let’s assume that more recent data is a better indicator than whatever was going on in the Carter administration. Double digit inflation, no internet, global supply chains weren’t really a thing: not really comparable culturally or in the economic fundamental data. Post COVID, the longest period of time has been around 4 months.
Fact #2This feels worse, somehow.
To circle back on what great aunt Nancy said in the Fox News comment section, people WERE buying at much higher rates in the 80s, and it was typically a positive decision in the long term. What they fail to account for are student loans, child care, health care, electricity, home prices being significantly higher even as adjusted against income.
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I only have Case-Shiller data through 2025, but that covers the portion of 2023 where rates were as high or higher than they were now, and you can see that once you factor in that houses no longer cost three corn cobs and a pack of Marlboros, the impact on your bottom line of housing cost is more significant on higher principal amounts and affordability is worse even at a lower rate.
Fact #3The weirdos saying this means we are going to 10% can’t read
I sat down with my emotional support spreadsheets this morning to try to answer a question: “If I take my feelings about… all of this… out of it, what do the numbers say. Why are data reports that would have sent rates going down the last time this happened causing rates to go up?”
If you line up today’s jobs, inflation, and economic growth numbers against other periods of time to look for the closest matches, we land on 2005-2007 (calm down) and 2024-2025. In both stretches, rates were mostly under 7% which leads us back to the 10 year treasury bond activity.
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Fact #4The Usual Math Says We should be in the Low-to-Mid Sixes
If the 10 year were sitting where it usually has relative to other points in history where we have had similar economic data, generally around .3-.5% over the federal funds rate, we would be in the mid 4s. Add in the usual 1.8-2% spread to mortgage rates, and we should be in the low to mid sixes. GEE WHIZ, right where we were before all the drama began.
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Lately, we have seen better than expected inflation figures and then, this week, worse than expected jobs (rates typically go down in response to data that unemployment is increasing) and the treasury market has done the opposite of what it “should” be doing. I smell feelings when I want to be looking at math.
Fact #5If I Had All the Answers, I’d be Retired Already
Since I am not writing this from my patio on a horse farm, we can freely assume that I am not a quantitative savant that has been paid handsomely by Wall Street for my predictive abilities. The only thing I can do here that is special is analyze patterns in the prices available to my clients over the decade that I have been doing this and identify when things make sense and when they are deviating from the usual. Those deviations in either direction don’t tend to last long.
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The last few run ups in rate made sense to me: inflation was high, investors need to know that long term investments will outpace that, mortgage rates go up. Right now? This feels like a lot of speculative trading behavior that’s well above my head.
So, what are the potential outcomes here?
My honest read? Based on recent cycles, the most likely paths lead back into the 6s. Here’s roughly how that could play out:
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Could rates stay over 7% for a year or more? It’s possible, but that would take a much hotter economy than the one we have. That’s not what the numbers are pointing to right now.
One honest caveat: the 3% rates of 2020–2021 came from near-zero Fed rates and the Fed buying up mortgage bonds. I don’t expect either to come back, so I’d plan around the 6s, not the 4s.
So what should you do?
Nobody can time rates perfectly, including me. Waiting for a magic number has its own costs, like rising home prices or missing the right house. Here’s how I’d think about it:
- Buying: don’t let 7% scare you off the right home. Recent spikes have been short, and refinancing later is an option. It does have costs and lower rates aren’t guaranteed, so let’s run the numbers together first.
- Under contract: ask me about lock options, including float-downs, which vary by lender.
- Already have a rate in the 7s from 2023–2024: a dip back to the low 6s could make a refinance worth it. Tell me your target rate and I’ll keep an eye on it for you.
Questions? Call or text me at 757-705-9936, or email grace@canterfinancial.com. Talking it through is free, and I promise not to lecture.
The fine print
Rate data comes from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (weekly, 1971 through Oct 1, 2026). Economic data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), pulled Oct 2, 2026. The rate ranges above are my own estimates based on past patterns. *Freddie Mac’s weekly survey runs about a week behind daily rate moves, so the “today” rate at the top comes from Mortgage News Daily.
This article is for general information only. It isn’t a forecast, a guarantee of future rates or a commitment to lend, and past patterns may not repeat. Your rate depends on your situation and can change. Grace Maxwell, NMLS #1641415 · Canter Financial LLC · Virginia State Corporation Commission license #MC-7986 · Equal Housing Lender.
